In the last trading session Bank Nifty reached low of 17819. Looks it is in corrective wave of last impulse. Further down move in card. Let us take a look at Bank nifty in various time frame.
Monthly chart is showing possibility of further down move in coming months. The index reversed from Top of bollinger band(BB). Bollinger bands are flat and possibility of range-bound movement within top and bottom bands is likely. So possibility of further down move in coming months very likely.
In Weekly chart, RSI reversed from 50 level generating a SELL signal 2 weeks ago. Bollinger bands started to expand. The possibility of 17600/17000 this week can not be ruled out.
In Daily chart, Index just moved on downside after trading within a range (shown by horizontal channel) for 20 trading days. The breaking of channel is giving target of 17500 level. RSI reversed from 50 level generating SELL signal on Dec 9. We can expect down move till RSI reaches 30 or below. Also BB were contracted and now expanding. So possibility of sharp down move is high. Also Index moved below 200 DMA(daily moving average) that is consider important level as support/resistance and TREND deciding level.
Hourly chart is clearly providing a trading strategy. The index falls and then corrective move goes back to middle line of Bollinger band(Shown in RED). It is actually 20 period Moving Average. So SELL Bank Nifty(Or Buy Put/Sell Call Option) when index reaches Middle BB line (or upper end of red line channel) and exit when index falls below lower band of BB (Blue line) or reaches near lower line of red channel. Buying Call/Selling Put option (Taking Long position) is not good idea. Just exit at bottom of channel and wait for index to reach upper end of channel/middle line of BB for Shorting or buying put/selling call option.
Also observe that Hourly RSI is providing clue for entry and exit. When RSI reaches 25 level impulse starts correcting and when RSI reaches 44 level corrective move gets matured. So 25 is support and 44 is resistance for hourly RSI. If RSI brakes 44 level and move up then we can look for reversal or bigger correction. If hourly RSI breaks 25, we can expect sharper down move.
The possible overall structure of Bank Nifty is shown below:
The wave/impulse started at 20300 is completed at 18188. the 5th wave of this impulse completed in ED as shown by small blue nos (1-5). The wave 2 is Irregular correction where wave B went below wave A. Wave 2 completed at 18739. Wave 3 is in progress with i and ii completed. Wave ii is again an Irregular correction. Wave 3-iii already started and we should expect a sharp move in coming days(It seems early series of i-ii waves are going on in 3-iii).
The Index moved below level of Dec 21/22. Will these levels now remain protected and Bank Nifty remain below these levels for coming months?
Note: Prime Minister talked about more tax on Capital market Income. How market react to this on Monday?
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